Experts expect weak demand for coke in China

Li Xinchuang, dean of the China Metallurgical Industry Planning Institute, said yesterday that it is expected that by 2015, China will require 382-390 million tons of coke. The data show that in 2009 China produced 34.52 million tons of coke, and the apparent consumption of coke was 344.64 million tons. Based on this calculation, the demand for coke in China will only increase by about 13% in the next five years. In spite of this, he believes that there will still be gaps in the supply of coking coal in China at that time and it will require large amounts of imports.
Li Xinchuang stated that the future development trend of the steel industry is to increase the number of pulverized coal injections in blast furnaces and reduce the coking ratio of ironmaking. According to 2015, he produced 700 million tons of steel, 665 million tons of pig iron, 143 kg/t iron in blast furnaces, and 825 kg/t iron in the average iron-to-coking ratio of ironmaking. It is expected that the total amount of coke in China's steel industry will be about 33. , 2.5 million tons, of which ironmaking industry consumes about 256 million tons of coke. In addition, if we include the amount of coke used in other industries such as chemicals and machinery, it is expected that in 2015 China will require a total amount of coke of 380,200 to 390 million tons.
According to Li Xinchuang's forecast, the country's coking coal production in 2015 was 1.32 billion tons, of which the production of primary coking coal and fat coal was 410 million tons. According to the national demand for coke output of 38,200 to 390 million tons in 2015, it is estimated that by 2015, the national coal coking coal requirements (dry coal) will be 774 to 789 million tons, of which the requirements for primary coking coal and fat coal will be 4.26~ 434 million tons.
He said that the total amount of coking coal can basically meet the needs, but from the point of view of coal, especially considering the coal ash and sulfur, the main coking coal and fat coal gap 0.2-0.3 billion tons, and thus is expected to 2015 China still needs a lot of imported coking coal.

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