Policy risk remains the main risk in the fertilizer industry

Since January 1, 2008, domestic DAP production has obtained a preferential VAT exemption policy, and also concluded that DAP was only a history of fertilizers that did not enjoy VAT benefits (this is also what we considered in the first half of 2007. The main reason why the industry should not be regulated).

The background of the introduction of VAT is that domestic and international DAP prices continue to rise: At present, domestic prices have risen by 70.8% compared with the beginning of 2007. At the same time, the United States DAP FOB price has risen by US$680/ton, which is a 165% increase from the beginning of 2007.

VAT exemption is good for DAP industry and major listed companies: According to our estimation, VAT exemption can increase the profit of DAP industry by about 625 million yuan, and the major listed companies Six Nations Chemicals and Hubei Yihua EPS will increase 0.249 respectively. About 0.093 yuan.

However, we believe that as the state exempts DAP value-added tax to support agricultural development and stabilise fertilizer prices, the industry is faced with the risk of DAP prices being regulated when the industry obtains preferential policies, which will affect the domestic DAP industry climate.

Policy risks remain the major risks in the fertilizer industry.