Low-speed car lithium battery upper: How will the consumer market evolve?

For a long time, few policies and regulations have been controversial like the low-speed electric vehicle national standard, and the disputed parties have remained unanimous. The introduction of the "national standard" was pushed from the eve of the Spring Festival to the Spring Festival, and after the Spring Festival, it was pushed to the eve of the "two sessions". However, the "two sessions" were held. The "national standard" of the low-speed electric vehicle was still "still squatting" and no standard appeared. Hard.

The "national standard" of low-speed electric vehicles is so "difficult to produce". The main focus of the dispute lies in the classification of its products and the battle between lead and lithium. The latter is a stone that stirs up waves. The parties to the dispute seem to have no room for concessions, and they all have reason. The author believes that no matter how the parties play, the low-speed electric vehicles on the lithium battery will cause a series of chain reactions, and the original low-speed electric vehicle consumer market will undergo great changes.

lithium battery? Lead storage battery? Still compromise?

The controversy over whether low-speed electric vehicles should be equipped with lead batteries or lithium batteries has been going on for a long time. Lithium battery supporters mainly elaborated on the viewpoints of environmental protection and technology upgrading trends, while lead battery supporters from the market demand and electric This realistic perspective of the car development phase is analyzed.

Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and leader of the drafting group for low-speed electric vehicles, is a supporter of lithium batteries. He recently wrote an article saying that “Now the national lead-acid battery recycling management is poor, lead pollution in many places, children’s blood lead exceeds the standard. The management of individual enterprises is a minority, and this regulation can only be made according to the national conditions (all replaced by lithium). Dong Yang's point of view can be regarded as a representative of lithium battery supporters, and some insiders believe that with the development of technology, product upgrade is the general trend, lithium battery replacement lead battery is the need for low-speed electric vehicle quality upgrade.

Of course there is another voice. Yang Yusheng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, believes that low-speed lead-acid batteries for electric vehicles are low in price, consumers are welcome, and the market needs; each battery has its own shortcomings, which needs to be improved and improved; To ensure that the probability of a fire and explosion accident is extremely low, the ignition event of the lithium-ion battery pack has frequently occurred. The higher the specific energy, the greater the probability of a fire or explosion accident, and the most prominent advantage of the lead storage battery is its high safety. Regarding the pollution of lead storage batteries, he believes that this is due to inadequate regulations, poor management, and poor supervision. Academician Yang Yusheng is a representative of lead battery supporters. He believes that lithium batteries from the upstream raw materials to battery production, the pollution caused by various links is not bad, said lithium batteries are "more environmentally friendly", it is a kind of "ignorance."

In addition, some people have proposed a compromise point of view. It is believed that a transition period can be set. In a certain period of time, a low-speed electric vehicle can slowly transition from a lead battery to a lithium battery. This view is a solution. But the compromise is not necessarily the best. The solution that truly meets the national conditions and truly meets the real needs of ordinary people is the best solution.

Lithium-titanium: How will the consumer market evolve?

From the news revealed by the previous "national standard" formulae of low-speed electric vehicles, it is highly probable that the lithium battery is in the upper position. If a lead battery is required to be replaced by a lithium battery, the cost of the low-speed electric vehicle will be greatly increased, which is reflected in the new cost of the battery and battery management system (BMS). Due to cost issues, low-speed electric vehicle lithium battery packs cannot choose the best quality products like high-speed electric vehicles. They can only be weighed in performance price. This requires BMS performance to be strong enough and the price to be low, which makes the car companies face Greater pressure. According to conservative estimates in the industry, the battery used in low-speed electric vehicles is calculated, the new cost of the battery is about 10,000 yuan, and the cost of BMS is about 2,000 yuan. Compared with the price of the existing low-speed electric vehicle for lead storage, the cost is about 30. %.

For general new energy vehicles, the cost increase of more than 10,000 yuan may not be a big problem because of its high price base. However, the low-speed electric vehicles are different. The manufacturers are not living Lei Feng. The increased cost is naturally passed on to the consumers of low-speed electric vehicles. The rise of low-speed electric vehicles has been rapidly developed because of its price, convenience and practicality. If the price rises from 30,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan, the advantage will disappear, and consumers will inevitably "vote with their feet" to make the most favorable consumption choice for themselves. Consumers can start a well-equipped A00-class pure electric car for 4-5 million yuan. Why do you still buy such a low-end electric car with low-end and simple decoration? Some consumers even choose to use it frequently in rural areas. The pure electric three-wheeled motorcycle with the canvas roof on the top, the same wind and rain; after the low-speed electric car sharply increased prices, it is not excluded that some consumers will re-select two-wheel electric bicycles.

Of course, for families that are not price sensitive, they will still choose low-speed electric vehicles. How many people will insist on buying low-speed electric vehicles, which is still unpredictable. It is foreseeable that if the lead battery is replaced by a lithium battery, the current low-speed electric vehicle consumer market will undergo major changes.

  Lithium battery upper position: How will the battery market change?

The replacement of a low-speed electric vehicle lead battery with a lithium battery is likely to trigger a series of chain reactions. Changes in the battery of low-speed electric vehicles will cause their prices to change. The price changes will trigger consumers to vote with their feet. The choice of consumers directly determines the A00-class sedan market, low-speed electric vehicle market and even electric bicycle market share. The growth and decline, which in turn affects the demand for power batteries in various fields.

First of all, according to the "national standard" regulations, the batteries of low-speed electric vehicles will be replaced by lithium batteries. How large is this market? According to incomplete statistics, the sales of low-speed electric vehicles in the country exceeded 1 million in 2016, while the national new energy in 2016 The car sold more than 500,000 vehicles. Millions of scales, for lithium batteries, this is a fairly large market, it is not difficult to understand why the parties have to play a fierce game on the use of batteries.

Secondly, some consumers will make consumption upgrades, and they will choose to buy A00-class cars. This part of the market will increase. At present, the battery of the A00 class has both a ternary lithium battery and a lithium iron phosphate battery, and the market share of these two types of batteries will increase. Of course, some users of low-speed electric vehicles will join the ranks of electric bicycles. In this part of the market, lead batteries and lithium batteries will have an increase.

As Dong Yang said, how to formulate the standards for low-speed electric vehicles may be the most complicated and difficult problem in China's auto industry. This problem is not technically complicated. The difficulty lies in the game of interests. Behind the controversy over low-speed electric vehicles for lithium batteries and lead batteries, there is also the shadow of the interests of all parties. No matter what kind of battery the final "national standard" chooses, consumers will "vote with their feet" to make the most favorable choice for themselves.