·The price of oil has entered the "eight" era and the pace of adjustment has been tracking the history

The National Development and Reform Commission announced on March 19 that since 0:00 on March 20, the national gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 600 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.44 yuan and 0.51 yuan per liter for No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel. This is the second domestic adjustment of the retail price of refined oil in 2012. The last price adjustment was on February 8, 2012, when the price of gasoline and diesel was raised by 300 yuan per ton.

This adjustment has several landmark significance. First, China's refined oil prices have reached record highs. Second, 93# gasoline in some regions has stepped into the “eight yuan” era. Third, the pace of this adjustment has been tracking the history. Why should we raise the price of oil significantly? What are the chain effects of high oil prices? When will the new pricing mechanism for refined oil be introduced?
At 0:01 on the morning of March 20, the reporter saw a number of owners in the PetroChina gas station on Hongqi Road in Nankai District, Tianjin, waiting to refuel at 12 o'clock. A minute ago, the price of 93rd gasoline on the mailbox of the reporter's gas station showed that it rose from 7.52 per liter to 8 yuan per liter.
Considering that social affordability reduces the price adjustment
Like Tianjin, in the early morning of the 20th, with the National Development and Reform Commission raising the price of refined oil, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and the southwestern provinces, the price of 93# gasoline has broken eight.
Zhu Kaichun, a refined oil analyst: "Beijing and Shanghai include the same piece of Guangdong. The southwest includes Hainan. It is fixed. In some places, it may be seven or nine hairs. In most places, there may be more than seven pieces of nine hairs. ”
The price of gasoline and diesel has increased by 600 yuan per ton, which is second only to 1,000 yuan in 2008. Up to now, the rate of change of three crude oils in the international market has exceeded 10% for 22 consecutive working days. Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University, calculated that the price adjustment should be 700 yuan per ton according to the formula, but the price adjustment was reduced in consideration of social affordability.
Lin Boqiang: "This is in accordance with the cost price mechanism. It is already more than this. If it is based on the refined oil price mechanism, it should be more than 10%. The 600 yuan should be less than 10%."
In the 11 years from 2000 to 2011, China's refined oil consumption has doubled, with an average annual growth rate of 7.5%. At the same time, the dependence on oil has also increased from 30% in 2000 to 56% last year. The recent surge in international crude oil prices triggered by the turmoil in the Middle East will inevitably affect our country.
Chen Qing, director of Zhuo Chuang Information: "Imported crude oil accounts for more than 50%. For example, Sinopec, 80% of all refined oil products are imported crude oil, which definitely affects its own cost. ”
If domestic refined oil prices continue to “stay in motion”, the losses of domestic refineries will continue to expand. The local refineries that are closed down will continue to increase, and the supply of refined oil will be marked with a big question mark.
Many industries such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and urban public transport are affected
According to the current formation mechanism of refined oil prices, although the price adjustment is “slow late”, the increase of 600 yuan per ton is indeed real, especially in the “special period” where the spring ploughing is immediate, how to protect the people’s livelihood The relevant industries are less affected and unaffected, and I am afraid that the parties have to consider the problems! how to respond?
Wang Yuqin is a large grain grower. This year, he contracted 3,560 mu of wheat, and there were more than 10 sets of agricultural machinery and equipment in spring. The rising price of diesel oil will bring considerable pressure to her.
Wang Yuqin: "Big, definitely big, is his cost not increasing? It will definitely have an impact. Last year, an acre of land (oil money) 40 yuan, then this year will have 50, 60, I do not know diesel If you know how to raise money, then I will book it in advance."
Wang Yuqin originally planned to spend about 50,000 yuan on diesel this year, but after this price adjustment, she still did not know how big the impact. It is not only affected by grain farmers, but also fisheries, forestry, urban buses, taxis, etc. will be affected to varying degrees. The National Development and Reform Commission said that the state will continue to subsidize grain farmers, fisheries, forestry, and urban buses, and provide temporary subsidies before the adjustment of taxi fares. Chen Qing also affirmed that the country will definitely find a way to grow grain farmers.
Chen Qing: "Some of them are directly in the form of financial appropriations. They are allocated to these agricultural machinery. One is to directly subsidize the oil price. That is to say, at this time, the agricultural machinery has a certain discount to the gas station."
The current mechanism has a long price adjustment period and is easy to be exploited.
In addition, the country will allocate funds to the oil price subsidy clearing funds for some difficult groups such as grain farmers, fisheries, forestry, urban public transport, and taxis in 2011, and pre-allocate some of the 2012 subsidy funds in advance by the end of April. To resolve the impact of refined oil price adjustments. Before the price adjustment, the market expectation is very strong, and oil sales and reluctance to sell are more common. A private gas station owner said that the current mechanism has a long price adjustment period and it is easy to be exploited.
Gas station owner: They have the conditions for price increases now, so they said that when the people’s congress was not up, it’s sure that the people’s congress will go up, the time is a bit longer, and some storage capacity is stored. Quite a lot.
A new pricing mechanism designed to respond more sensitively and accurately to international oil prices is in the pipeline. The core direction of the reform is to shorten the price adjustment cycle of 22 working days; the reference range of 4% is expected to be lowered. In addition, the pricing power and the price adjustment right may be separated, and the price adjustment right may give two barrels of oil or a neutral institution.
Chen Qing: The pricing power is still calculated by the NDRC. It is only under certain conditions. For example, if the international oil price is not too high and will not cause too much pressure on the economy, it will allow self-adjustment. It may choose a neutral institution.
Lin Boqiang stressed that the new pricing mechanism will make the refined oil price closer to the market, and the integration with the market can prevent the phenomenon of hoarding, reluctance to sell, or even speculation of refined oil.
Lin Boqiang: "The company adjusts on time and adjusts it in time. It won't be the same. It's guessing that it is closer to the market than the current advantage."

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