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Smartphones are on the rise, mobile Internet is booming, 3G subverts the business model and changes our lives, but it is only the starting point. In the 4G era, greater changes are bound to come.
More complicated changes will occur in the operator market. On January 7, 2009, China Mobile obtained the TD-SCDMA license. After more than four years, China Mobile has gone very hard. Looking forward to relying on 4G's more mature technical standards to resolve the 3G era. The pressure, but in the 4G hand, the competition pattern of operators is quite variable, and whether China Mobile's current leading 4G advantage can continue to wait and see.
China first issued the TD-LTE (TDD) license. China Mobile only invested 41.7 billion yuan this year, building about 200,000 TD-LTE base stations, and plans to expand the coverage city of TD-LTE to more than 300. China Unicom and China Telecom have invested heavily in 3G networks in the past two or three years. The desire for 4G is far less than that of China Mobile. At least in the first half of 2014, China Unicom's main force is still upgrading 3G networks. China Telecom is more entangled, and the judgment of the FDDLTE licensing time determines its final technical play.
Although no FDDLTE license was issued, China Telecom and China Unicom built the experimental network, which is equivalent to being acquiesced to rush to run FDD. Therefore, the industry will judge that the enthusiasm of the two TD-LTE construction will be further reduced, even if the two hybrid networks in the future, TD-LTE The proportion will not exceed FDD. This not only makes China's main TD-LTE standard to promote the existence of variables, but also makes China Mobile, which is under pressure from competition, have the possibility to apply for LTE FDD license.
China Mobile seems to benefit, but 3G is no better than 4G, and the other two operators are unlikely to wait to be left behind.
Whether there will be more asymmetric control in the future (such as adjusting inter-network settlement, port number transfer, etc.) and how to promote the introduction of TD-LTE policy will be the focus of the future game and the key to the formation of the operator structure.
At the same time, private virtual operators will strive for 4G resources, LTE FDD license issuance, radio and television network entry and even new telecom restructuring, open operator shareholding structure, and separation of the network industry will lead to more complex changes in the operator market.
In terms of network speed alone, TD-LTE will help China Mobile win back customers with higher network requirements, but China Mobile also faces the dual pressure of 4G network construction period and user experience requirements after formal commercial use.
China Mobile invested 41.7 billion yuan this year for the construction of 200,000 4G base stations and invested more than 30 billion yuan for 4G terminal subsidies. The above-mentioned investment of more than 70 billion yuan is only the prelude to the construction of China Mobile's 4G network. The subsequent continuous capital investment and profitability are a huge test. The huge investment in 4G network construction is another challenge for China Mobile's 4G tariff. The plan for higher traffic and lower price package is helpful for the early stage of 4G commercial use, but it seems that it is not realistic to expect the package price to drop sharply. If you can't break this embarrassing situation, it is very unfavorable for 4G fast commercial use.
Telecom operators are being marginalized by Internet companies, and 4G means that they are at stake. The extremely high investment in 4G network construction and the increase in data operation increments do not increase the revenue of operators into a more passive industrial ecology, and further marginalization, is willing to be pipelined, or Nirvana rebirth, operators are still around swing. Whether it is 4G or 3G, the most important thing for operators is the profit model of traffic management. At present, there is still no problem.
4G opens new opportunities and the door of wealth 4G is a long-awaited door of China Mobile. The opening of this door brings new opportunities and wealth to the industrial parties, and brings another round of shuffling and competition.
In 2014, the 4G market will continue to grow. The year in which terminals and equipment will be delivered in batches will be a year of explosive growth in domestic 4G investment. It is widely expected that the network construction climax will last for three years. According to the forecast data of CITIC Securities, the investment growth rate of the main equipment, RF equipment, network optimization coverage and transmission in 2013 will reach 523, 573, 613 and 322 respectively.
The acceleration of the TD-LTE industry is a great boost to the development of China's integrated circuit industry, but the biggest beneficiary is still Qualcomm, and Chinese companies are still lagging behind.
The 3G networks commercialized by China's three major operators use three different technical standards, and two standards are used in 4G networks. Currently, Qualcomm is the only chip manufacturer that can provide a relatively perfect 2G/3G/4G solution. Not only that, 4G still circumvents Qualcomm's patents. At the Qualcomm New York analyst conference, Qualcomm clearly stated that it would charge TD-LTE patent fees. Huawei and other major Chinese manufacturers and international companies have signed licensing agreements with Qualcomm.
With the advent of 3G, mobile phone giants such as Nokia collapsed instantly. In the 4G era, mobile phone manufacturers may welcome another reshuffle.
4G terminals are divided into Internet terminals (Mifi) and mobile phone terminals. Mifi will become a dark horse and it is expected to create a large number of new application scenarios. However, it is still a mobile phone that can really measure the maturity of TD-LTE. In the 3G era, the terminal once became a constraint of China Mobile. At the beginning of 4G, although the terminal is also relatively small, compared with China Mobile's strong promotion of 3G terminals, 4G terminals will no longer be the main content affecting the industry. Li Zhengmao, vice president of China Mobile, disclosed many times at the end of 2014. According to China Mobile's terminal development plan, in 2014, 3G and 4G will be combined, and in 2015, 4G will be fully utilized, and comprehensive coverage of high school and low-end will be realized.
In September of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the first batch of 4G mobile phone network access licenses in China. Four TD-LTE mobile phones with network access licenses were from Samsung, Sony, ZTE and Huawei. Since then, other vendors have also released TD-LTE networks. The mobile phones, including Apple's 5S and 5C supporting TD-LTE, also received a network test license.
Because it has released more network construction requirements and terminal update requirements, it will not only benefit a group of telecom equipment vendors and terminal manufacturers, but also 10 times faster than 3G network speed, which is better for games, video, music and new mobile application companies. The birth of more Big Mac application vendors to provide a hotbed, subverting Apple, WeChat's next challenger may appear at any time.
The current smart TV is in full swing, the home appliance industry will usher in a reshuffle, and cable TV may be eliminated due to 4G. This trend is already evident. Through TV boxes, home TVs can easily link TVs on the Internet with 20M home broadband. program. Video sites are also welcoming to 4G, and since video can be readily available, online education will become more likely in the future. In fact, the three giants of Baidu, Ali, and Tencent (BAT) have already begun to lay out online education.
In fact, the network infrastructure is greatly upgraded, and consumers are the biggest winner of 4G. 4G can provide faster network speed than 3G. It is tested under China Mobile's 4G test network. The maximum download speed of mobile phones exceeds 100Mbps. The theoretical peak download speed of mainstream 3G network is only 7.2Mbps. Based on fast 4G network, consumers use smart phones. , Pad video calls, watching HDTV, playing Internet games, downloading movies and other services will be very smooth, no mosaic, jamming phenomenon.
People are connected with things, things are connected with things, wearable devices, and networked terminals will spring up like mushrooms. Google Eyes, Tesla, Apple TV, smart watches, and even smart buttons, everything is given a smart label. Who can make the consumer experience the ultimate, who is the winner of 4G.
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