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Sales of LED bulbs and lamps will explode. With the LED manufacturers rushing into the vertical integration of the supply chain and the introduction of CSP packaging and the development of new technologies for DOB systems, LED bulbs and lamps are expected to fall below $8 and $17 respectively by the end of 2014. Help stimulate end-users to expand their purchases and accelerate the popularity of the LED lighting market.
In 2014, the light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs and lamps are expected to rise sharply. LED grain manufacturers such as OSRAM Optoconductors, Cree, Dehao Runda, Jingyuan Optoelectronics and Ronda Electronics continue to actively integrate the supply chain through acquisition and strategic alliance (Table 1). In order to reduce the cost of the light source and reduce the cost of assembling the module, the price of the LED bulb continues to decline, and the penetration rate in the lighting market is also expanding. In the first quarter of 2014, which was released by LED chip manufacturers in the near future, revenue and gross profit increased compared with 2013, and one of the main sources of contribution is the increase in lighting orders, which can be confirmed.
AlvinTse, vice president of Philips Lumileds Asia Pacific, also said that the current price of LED bulbs is comparable to that of energy-saving bulbs. It is only twice as expensive as traditional light bulbs. The spread has been greatly reduced from the previous two to three times. Therefore, it is estimated that LED bulbs in 2014 will be And the market share of lamps can reach 30 and 25.
The vertical integration strategy of the die factory has broken the LED bulb and fell below US$9. In recent years, the LED chip manufacturers have continued to integrate the supply chain with the strategy and the vertical integration of the supply chain. Now, the specific results have been achieved. The price of the 10 watt LED bulb has been reduced. The 10 dollars are further reduced to less than 9 dollars.
NPDDisplaySearch analyst Yan Qingwei said that in 2014, the largest LED chip factory in Evergrande was more distinct and accelerated the movement of market forces.
NPDDisplaySearch analyst Yan Qingwei said that in addition to SpotLight, LED light source accounts for about 50% of lamps, lamps and downlights. It is obvious that LED light source accounts for the majority of bulb or lamp costs (Table 2). Therefore, reducing the unit price of the light source has become an important goal of the LED lighting supply chain industry.
Among them, South Korea, Japan and Europe and the United States LED die factory, has recently been actively expanding into the downstream packaging and system design field, with a one-stop operation strategy to reduce the cost of light source manufacturing, while expanding the estuary of its products. For example, Nichia Chemical and Cree have developed a more cost-effective LED light source by reducing the cost of module assembly, and spurred the sales growth of Walmart and HomeDepot, respectively, to stimulate product sales growth, thereby further reducing The price of 9.5 watt LED bulbs is less than $10 and less than $9, respectively.
With the vertically integrated supply chain of LED chip manufacturers in South Korea, Japan and Europe, the LED chip suppliers in China and Taiwan, such as Sanan Optoelectronics, Ronda, Jingyuan Optoelectronics, and TSMC Solid State Lighting, are not too much. They have invested in a one-stop layout, and then the LED chip market has rapidly heated up.
On the other hand, downstream LED package manufacturers are stuck in the upstream technology threshold and the investment amount is too high, so it is difficult to vertically integrate, so they have stepped up the system to establish a virtual integrated vertical supply chain to stand firm in the market.
Yan Qingwei believes that the vertical integration of LED chip and LED packaging industry in the supply chain is expected to accelerate the decline of LED bulb prices. It is expected that the price of 10 watt LED bulbs in the market will fall to 8.96 US dollars in the second quarter of this year, even before the end of the year. Up to 8 US dollars will help LED lighting become more popular.
In addition to the LED chip factory supply chain vertical integration strategy, driving LED bulbs to cut prices, LED chip size packaging (CSP) technology accelerates commercial use, and LED driver chip and lighting developers push DOB (DriveronBoard) system technology, will also The LED lamp source and module cost continue to decline.
CSP/DOB technology helps LED lamps and lanterns fall in price Lunda Electronic Lighting Products Division Director Huang Daoheng said that CSP subverts the traditional package architecture, eliminating the lead frame (LeadFrame) and wiring steps, you can directly import the lighting system; Integrating epitaxial, die, package and surface mount (SMD) bonding technologies, it is easier to achieve mass production targets for Ronda, which adopts a one-stop process.
Since the CSP does not require a lead frame and the heat dissipation performance is superior to the conventional LED package technology, it is not necessary to use more heat dissipation components. Therefore, LED manufacturers adopt this packaging technology to develop LED light sources, and the overall bill of materials (BOM) cost can be significantly reduced. Zhao Qingwei pointed out that the price of a 1-watt high-power LED is more than NT$10. The price of the lead frame is about NT$1. 2; if it is large, it can save considerable cost for the lighting system developer. This includes the cost of saving the line.
Aiming at the market prospects of CSP packaging technology, LED chip suppliers such as Samsung, Cree, Philips Lumileds, Nichia, Toshiba, Jingyuan Optoelectronics and Ronda have been competing in CSP technology research and development.
Huang Daoheng believes that CSP is small in size and provides higher flexibility in secondary optical design. It can emit high-intensity light sources in a very small space. It is especially suitable for lighting applications that require more optical changes and high light source density, such as the largest market. The light bulb has become a major market for the company's lock in 2014.
In addition, DOB system technology will also rise and accelerate the cost of lighting systems. Huang Daoheng analysis, focusing on the rapid expansion of the LED market penetration rate, lighting system operators to step up the business opportunities in the card market, is trying to reduce the development complexity, speed up the time-to-market and reduce manufacturing costs, so that DOB system technology came into being. Especially suitable for the development of LED lamps such as downlights and ceiling lamps.
At present, LED driver chip and package manufacturers are actively promoting DOB system technology to lighting system vendors, and will integrate LED driver chips and packages on the module board to simplify the steps that the lighting system manufacturers have to integrate themselves. Yan Qingwei said that LED driver chip and package manufacturers mainly realize standardized products through integration, and achieve the purpose of reducing the cost by means of quantity pricing. However, there is no common industrial specification, so the cost can be estimated. After the specification is established, it will be applied to alternative light source applications such as light bulbs, and help the lighting system price to fall further.
It is also worth noting that LED chip manufacturers continue to expand the integration of the supply chain through acquisition and strategic alliances, which will intensify the consolidation of the LED industry; and it is unable to expand the vertical supply chain scale or weak fabric factory to survive. The space will be threatened and the acceleration will be eliminated by the market.
Consolidation / Market Elimination Accelerates LED Factory's Bigger Evergrande Situation Intensified Yan Qingwei said that as more and more LED die manufacturers step up their efforts to establish a vertically integrated supply chain through acquisitions and strategic alliances, the largest LED manufacturer in 2014 will be Evergrande. The situation will be more significant than in 2013.
It is understood that in 2014, China and Taiwan LED die factory will brew a number of acquisitions, which will cause the global market power sector to move. This is a result of the frequent expansion of Sanan Optoelectronics' succession in 2013 and the supply of two die suppliers in the United States, such as Lumen and Yuyuan. As a result, many LED die factories with poor physical condition have successively announced that their liabilities have closed down and they have seen the clues.
In fact, thanks to the support of the Chinese mainland government, Sanan Optoelectronics has been able to continue to increase its investment in organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) machines, resulting in a sharp drop in LED die prices. Therefore, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Europe and the United States LED crystal The grain factory has been able to purchase and establish vertical integration of the supply chain, or strategic alliance to achieve virtual integration, to expand the product's estuary in the downstream system, and to increase profitability and pay more revenue contribution.
In the more obvious situation of the big Evergrande, the market ranking between manufacturers will brew another wave of reshuffle; however, Zhao Qingwei believes that LED manufacturers are over-supplied due to over-expansion of production capacity, so LED prices are straight. After the downfall, 2014 will tend to no longer expand production, the opportunity to reduce the annual decline in LED prices from the previous 15-20 to 5-10, and promote the profit and revenue of each factory, is expected to delay the market The time of the big move.
Accelerate the replacement of traditional light source LED lighting market growth rate has increased in the bulb and lamp prices continue to fall, coupled with government subsidy policy, LED lighting is accelerating the replacement of traditional incandescent lamps, halogen lamps and other traditional light sources.
Zhao Qingwei pointed out that the largest T8 tube in 2014 (1.2 meters in length, in compliance with safety regulations and power factor (PF) value greater than 0.9), the price of imported LED light source is about NT$500 or more (about US$17). Compared with the unit price of NT$600-700 in 2013, it is much lower; and the gap with the price of traditional T8 lamps has further narrowed to about NT$150.
Not only is the price of LED lighting products down, but governments in Japan, China and other countries have successively proposed LED lighting subsidy policies to encourage end consumers to increase their willingness to purchase LED bulbs and lamps, and will become another major kinetic energy in the LED lighting market. .
According to market forecasting agency NPDDisplaySearch, shipments of LED bulbs and lamps will reach 680 million and 490 million respectively in 2014, compared with 442 million and 200 million in 2013. Three million, all showing multiple growth.
Yan Qingwei expects that with the increase in visibility of lighting applications, the sales volume of LED chips in lighting applications will reach 77.8958 billion in 2015, surpassing the 6.4 billion for backlight applications for the first time. Sixty-eight million.
In addition, the demand for packaged LEDs for lighting will increase from 4,416.63 million in 2013 to 152.23 billion in 2017, growing. Strong strength.
Although, due to the excessive price drop of LED bulbs, the market has become a price competition. However, Tse believes that despite the sharp drop in LED bulb prices, the supplier's gross profit has shrunk, but it will also encourage overall sales to rise, which will still help to improve revenue performance.
It can be expected that as LED bulbs and lamps quickly replace traditional incandescent lamps, halogen lamps and other light sources, LED light sources will accelerate the penetration of the lighting market in 2014, making lighting a new kinetic energy to truly drive the growth of the LED market.
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