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According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) estimates, the total apparent consumption of global fertilizers in 2011 increased by 5% compared to 2010, reaching 227 million tons (equivalent to the same below). Globally, domestic shipments only increased by 6% in all regions to reach 175 million tons, while total exports grew by less than 3% from 2010 to 52 million tons.
In the case of strong demand, global fertilizer production can meet demand and exceed consumption. Production capacity growth is slower than output, and production capacity has increased by nearly 11 million tons, an increase of 4% over 2010. Globally, the start-up rate is 83% of capacity and 82% in 2010.
The performance of international trade in 2011 was that almost all varieties of chemical fertilizers were imported steadily, demand for imports from South Asia and Latin America was strong, and fertilizer demand and imports in North America and East Asia rebounded. As in the past two years, China’s export tariffs continue to have an impact on global urea and diammonium trade. The reduction of Chinese exports has created sales opportunities for other exporting countries. Even so, China has always occupied a huge market share of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers in India and Southeast Asia.
In 2011, the demand for nitrogen fertilizers was strong, which led to a 4% increase in global ammonia and urea production. The potential surplus in 2012 was less than 2.5 million tons. In 2011, the global synthetic ammonia trade grew slowly by 2% to 17.7 million tons. It is expected that global ammonia production capacity will increase by 5% in 2012, reaching 208 million tons. It is estimated that the global urea production capacity in 2011 will be close to 184 million tons (in kind), and in 2012 it will reach 196 million tons. The potential surplus in 2011 was low, at 3.6 million tons. The surplus will remain stable until 2012. Most of the new capacity will not be put into production until the second half of 2012.
In 2011, global demand for phosphate fertilizers was strong, and almost all consumer countries increased their demand, thus supporting higher production levels. Global sales of phosphate fertilizer increased by 6% compared to 2010, and all growth came from domestic sales.
In 2011 and 2012, global phosphate fertilizer production capacity will reach 40.5 million tons and 42 million tons respectively. In 2011, China and Saudi Arabia have new production capacities of diammonium and monoammonium. Among them, the increase in capacity in 2012 will mainly come from China.
In 2011, there was no new phosphoric acid production worldwide. It is expected that the global phosphoric acid capacity will increase by 2.1 million tons to 54.1 million tons in 2012. In 2011, the global supply of phosphoric acid was relatively tight. After entering 2012, the situation was basically the same with a potential surplus of only 2.3 million tons.
Due to strong demand, global potash fertilizer production in 2011 increased by 5% to 7%. Global sales of potassium chloride in 2011 were estimated at 55.7 million tons, compared with 55.2 million tons in 2010. In 2011, the global potash production capacity increased by 6% to 44.6 million tons. In 2012, the production capacity is expected to increase by 5% to 46.8 million tons. According to the product, global potassium chloride capacity will reach 74.5 million tons in 2012. In addition to China's expansion, all capacity growth has occurred in exporting countries.
The potential surplus of potassium chloride in 2012 is between 6 million and 650 million tons, and the supply growth will probably be absorbed by the increase in demand.
In 2012, world sulfur production is expected to increase by 7% from 2011 to reach 54.6 million tons. Global consumption is expected to reach 55.5 million tons, an increase of 4.5% from 2011. The imbalance between supply and demand will continue into 2012, but with the increase in production, the degree of imbalance has declined.
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