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This contrasts sharply with the sluggish development of the imported automobile market. After entering 2005, auto exports have once again experienced rapid growth. Not only that, with the continuous improvement of the overall strength of the domestic major car manufacturers, especially car manufacturers, the added value of their products has also gradually increased, so that the vehicle's export capacity has also been greatly improved on the basis of rapid increase in previous years. . In 2005, China's auto exports continued to maintain a rapid growth. Auto vehicles and parts become the main export products. According to customs statistics on imports and exports, in the first three quarters of this year, the total export volume of China's auto exports was US$14.438 billion, an increase of 54.95% year-on-year. Overall, this year's exports have the following characteristics:
(1) The steady growth of trucks and the rapid growth of cars
Customs statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, China’s total exports of cars totaled 19,000 units, an increase of nearly 1.70 times year-on-year; total trucks exported stood at 73,600 units, an increase of nearly 1.34 times year-on-year; and the total number of passenger cars exported was 0.90 units. , an increase of 81.20% over the same period of the previous year; the cumulative export of other manned motor vehicles was 367,700, an increase of 15 times year-on-year.
Judging from the export trend of models, China's trucks, especially medium and heavy-duty trucks, have certain international competitiveness and will have ample conditions for export to developing countries. The same characteristics also appear in the field of micro-cars and buses. It can be foreseen that in China's auto vehicle exports, these three types of models will be the main models following the rapid growth of golf cars and ATVs.
(2) Parts become the main force of automobile exports
In the first three quarters, exports of auto parts and related products, which accounted for the vast majority of auto exports in parts and components, still maintained rapid growth. Among them, exports of auto parts, accessories and body of 6.147 billion US dollars, an increase of 55.38%; exports of other automotive-related products 2.103 billion US dollars, an increase of 37.34%.
Among auto parts, some of China’s traditional products such as automotive electrical appliances, brakes, aluminum wheels, automotive wiring harnesses, constant velocity joints, brake pads and other automotive products still maintain a high rate of growth, and will continue to be China’s auto parts breeding stocks. The key commodities have occupied an important position in the world. With the continuous improvement of the comprehensive strength of domestic auto parts manufacturers, especially some major auto parts manufacturers have accelerated the “going out†strategy, some high-value-added parts such as engine EFIs, automobile tires, and engine parts The technological level of products such as airbags and airbags and the quality of products have been continuously improved, and the export potential in the international market will be increasing.
(3) The exports to Europe, America and Asia, Africa and Latin America are different
In the first three quarters, China exported automobiles to 173 countries (regions) in the world, an increase of 12 countries over the previous year.
From the perspective of the number of exported vehicles, North America, Oceania, and Europe have maintained high-speed growth in China’s automobiles since the second quarter of this year. In the first three quarters of this year, China exported 177,700 vehicles, 10,500 vehicles, and 148,000 vehicles in these areas, which was an increase of 18 times, 9 times, and 15 times year-on-year. The main reason for the rapid growth of China’s auto exports to these regions is that China’s other manned vehicles are of high quality and low price and have strong appeal. This was followed by a low base for these export vehicles in 2004, which were 9236, 1,254, and 9,409 vehicles in the same period of 2004.
However, from the point of view of export value, Asia ranks first in the six continents with 520 million U.S. dollars, and second in Africa, with an export value of 320 million U.S. dollars. North America, which has the largest number of auto exports, is only US$87 million. The main reason for this huge contrast is that 95% of the vehicles exported to countries with developed automobiles such as Europe and America are golf vehicles, ATVs and other low-value-added passenger vehicles, and this trend will remain fairly high. A long period of time. Even if the trucks and cars are exported to these areas, not only the quantity is quite limited, but the export price of bicycles is also low. In contrast, China’s exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America are dominated by higher value-added trucks and cars, and the export price of bicycles is also more than 50% higher than in Europe and the United States. Especially Syria in the Middle East, export cars account for nearly 60% of the exports of such models.
In summary, if domestic autos want to have a place in the overseas market, they must first identify their own superior products and accurate target markets to avoid blind exports. Judging from the current development status and export experience of domestic autos, China’s domestic trucks have a comparatively strong competitive advantage in the international market, and they can try to enter the European and American markets while maintaining steady growth in exports from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The Middle East market is the main target market for car exports. The Middle East, where the auto industry is weak, has a large demand for automobiles, and the large number of economical cars produced in China are all affordable products that exactly meet the demand for such vehicles in the Middle East. Golf cars, ATVs and other manned vehicles of high quality and low cost are the first choices for economically developed European and American countries. Countries with high per capita income, such as Saudi Arabia in the Middle East and South Africa in Africa, have special needs for these models.
Five Bottlenecks Constrain Automotive Exports
Despite the rapid growth of China’s automobile exports in the past two years, both the company itself and the external environment have brought certain obstacles to the export of Chinese cars. In general, there are at least five major bottlenecks restricting China’s auto exports:
1, the international technical barriers are difficult to break through. The developed automobile market in the world has strict requirements on external safety and environmental protection. The quality and technical performance of export vehicles need to be adapted to the characteristics of the social environment, natural environment, geographical conditions, and even the human environment in different countries in different regions of the international market. At the same time, they also face severe international competition. At present, there is still a large gap between China's automobile technology and international standards. Therefore, if we want to achieve smooth export of our automotive products, we must overcome many technical bottlenecks as soon as possible.
2. Chinese auto companies generally focus on sales and service. Automobile exports in the international market have the characteristics of strong technical, strong liquidity, strong display, and wide use. They require strong pre-sales, sales and after-sales services, and need to provide long-term spare parts supply. Before entering the foreign market, automotive products need to first establish the after-sales service system.
3, intellectual property difficulties. Compared with the rapid progress in production capacity and output, the Chinese auto industry has not made any breakthrough in independent intellectual property rights or brand image so far, which makes China’s auto exports face a bottleneck. The increase in the number of Chinese auto exports has partly masked the plight of intellectual property innovation. Because our national brands are not strong enough in the entire vehicle project, and are mostly concentrated in the low-end market, which makes it difficult for China's vehicle exports to become a climate.
4, the export of maritime issues. Without sufficient export volume, the ro-ro vessels that are specifically designed for the export of whole vehicles will not be able to afford it. The car will face the problem of backlogs that cannot be shipped in ports. Before large-scale exports arrive, shipping will always be the bottleneck. It is also because most of the export orders currently obtained by domestic automakers are irregular, and many times they can only afford the expensive “retail price†of Japanese and South Korean shipping companies. The long-term agreement is even a shipping company's equity participation and enjoys an affordable "wholesale price."
5, anti-dumping problems. Chinese cars that lack brand advantages can only rely on low-end markets for short-term profit returns, but this will have a long-term negative impact on Chinese cars that have just grown up. In the long run, Chinese cars may not only become synonymous with "cheap cars," but it is possible to repeat that China's textile and hardware products have to fight each other's price war and kill each other, but also have to struggle for the world's frequent "anti-dumping".
No one dares to export potential
Although the export of automobile products in China is still in a preliminary stage, its potential still cannot be ignored. In the long run, due to China's huge market potential, low labor cost and high quality, continuous improvement of comprehensive industrial level, no labor disputes, the WTO accelerating institutional changes, and the sustained and rapid growth of the national economy, it is likely to become a global automobile. The next destination of the industry transfer.
In the short-term analysis, there are three main factors that will promote China's auto products to maintain a high rate of growth:
1, excess capacity forced exports
According to the forecast of the National Information Center at the beginning of 2005, the production capacity of cars will reach 5.2 million in 2005, and plans to sell 3.5 million vehicles, while the actual sales volume may be only 2.87 million, a difference of 2.5 million vehicles. With the completion and investment of auto companies' investments in the past two years, the automobile production capacity will rapidly expand in the next few years.
The National Development and Reform Commission of China predicts that by 2007, all Chinese auto manufacturers can achieve their planned goals, and the combined production capacity of various types of vehicles may reach 14 million. At that time, car sales may be possible. There will only be 7 million vehicles.
The survey shows that in 2005, the average productivity of domestic automobile manufacturers was only 40%, while the productivity of joint ventures was only 60%, which was lower than the 85% required for the motor vehicle industry to achieve profitability. It can be predicted that domestic enterprises will have to increase their productivity in order to maintain their basic profitability, and at the same time, they should also see that overcapacity will be inevitable, and this contradiction of oversupply is now emerging. At the same time, in the face of pressure from energy, environmental protection, and transportation, expanding exports and exploring overseas markets will be the only way for Chinese automakers.
2. Low manufacturing cost leads to strong price advantage
If the overcapacity forces domestic auto companies to passively choose to export, then the low labor cost advantage will make it possible for companies to actively choose an export strategy. According to statistics, wages and welfare expenditures for employees in the Chinese auto and auto parts industry range from approximately US$1/hour to US$2/hour, which is equivalent to 5%-10% of labor costs in developed countries. If we consider the factors of the quality of labor at the same time, the advantages of China's labor force's comprehensive competitiveness may be even greater. If this situation can change with changes in the system and management, the advantages of labor costs in China will become more apparent. From the perspective of the current global automobile cost structure, wages account for approximately 7%-10% of the automobile price. High quality and low cost of China’s labor force have greatly saved the cost of automobile production and made it more cost-competitive than foreign automobiles. This is one of them.
Second, the overall capacity of China's manufacturing industry, especially the automobile upstream related industries, also enhances China's automobile competitiveness. The output of steel products, machinery products, and textile materials related to automobile products in China ranks first in the world, and some labor-intensive products such as automotive electrical appliances, brakes, aluminum wheels, automotive wiring harnesses, constant velocity joints, brake pads, etc. in the world It has occupied an important position and has a strong international competitiveness. All these have provided China's auto exports a strong overseas competitiveness. In addition, the technological level and product quality of automotive audio and video products, automotive tires, engine parts and other products are continuously improving, and their competitiveness in the international market is increasing.
The lower manufacturing cost has led to a strong price advantage for China’s autos. Take the Great Wall pickup in the Middle East and other places for example. In the Middle East market, the price of the Great Wall pickup is only about 1/2 of the price of similar foreign products. As a result, it has extremely strong competitiveness in the Middle East market.
3. Strong policy support
As we all know, policy factors have a great impact on automobile exports. In some major auto export countries such as Japan, Germany, and South Korea, the support of national policies for auto exports has led to the birth of auto powers. In 2005, China will increase its support for auto exports. Undoubtedly, the increase in policy support will greatly speed up the export of automobile products in China.
The new "Automobile Industry Development Policy" clearly stated that while expanding the export of auto parts, we must pay attention to expanding the export of whole vehicles. If it takes five years or so, it will achieve 10% of the total volume of the world's automobile trade, which is the scale of exports of more than 120 billion U.S. dollars.
The Ministry of Commerce has also established the near-to-medium-term goals for China's auto and auto parts exports. That is, the recent export targets are mainly labor-intensive and material-intensive products, and will continue to increase the export of products with high technological content and high added value, vigorously expand the foreign aftermarket, and strive to obtain a matching market share of more than 30% by 2005. The amount of auto and auto parts exports reached 15 billion to 20 billion U.S. dollars.
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