LED demand for bottom reversal will increase by 60% next year

After three years of cold winter, the LED industry seems to be springing up next year. Foreign UBS Securities pointed out that in 2014, global LED lighting demand will increase by 60%, among which household lighting will grow the most, and will increase by 90% next year. It is estimated that LED chip demand will grow by 25.
2010 is the peak of the LED industry. At that time, the domestic epitaxial faucet factory Jingdian earned more than half of its annual share capital, and the net profit per share (EPS) was 7 yuan (NTD, the same below); the packaging and brand factory billion light also reached 5.52. yuan. However, after China's LED production capacity was opened, Taiwan's factory profit was greatly reduced. The next year, crystal power fell from the cloud to the world. In 2011, EPS was only 0.5 yuan, and in 2012, each share lost more than 1 yuan. In the past two years, Yiguang relied on cost. Control, although not losing money, but EPS is also cut half by year.
LED reversal in the bottom of the valley after three years of lows, the LED industry prospects for the next year seems to have a trend of improvement, the main kinetic energy comes from lighting, and the growth of backlight demand for tablet computers can not be ignored. In the latest LED industry analysis report, foreign-funded UBS Securities pointed out that if the chip area is calculated, the demand for LED general lighting will increase by 62 in the next year. If the normal annual unit price falls, the LED lighting revenue will grow by about 37 in the next year. In other words, LED lighting penetration will grow from just 3-5 this year to 9 next year, while traditional incandescent lamps will be reduced at a rate of 5 per year.
Light bulb price cuts increase penetration UBS pointed out that US LED giant Cree launched a 9.5-watt LED bulb (replacement of 60-watt incandescent bulb) this year, retailing for only $9.97; more importantly, the bulb has passed the US ENERGY STAR certification can receive a $5 per grant, which means consumers can buy it for $4.97, which is equivalent to the price of a light bulb (about $2-5). UBS believes that this means that LED bulbs may have reached a sweet spot.
International big-chip wafers are also outsourced by UBS. In the lighting market, the penetration rate of household lighting is the lowest. That is because the price of LED bulbs in the past was too high, and it took many years for home replacement to recover, but the situation will change now. With the price cuts of LED bulbs, the bans of incandescent lamps by various governments, coupled with the global economic recovery, will fuel LED lighting fermentation. UBS estimates that next year's home LED lighting global revenue will grow 90, far higher than the commercial 37 and industrial 57.
International lighting manufacturers such as Philips and Osram have only outsourced downstream packaging modules. UBS analyst Fredric Stahl believes that due to the surge in demand for LED lighting next year, big companies are considering adopting Asian LED chips at the upstream end to increase price competitiveness. The industry believes that domestic epitaxial faucet crystal power should be able to benefit.
As for the backlight market, the kinetic energy from TV has been declining year by year. UBS pointed out that although the penetration rate of LED TVs has increased from 75 last year to 95 this year, the number of wafers used per TV has been reduced by 25 (because the number of direct-type TVs is reduced). Fortunately, there has been a slight improvement next year, mainly due to the larger TV size and the higher popularity of high-resolution TVs such as 4K*2K (higher backlight brightness required). UBS estimates that TV's share of LED chips will fall from about 36 this year to 16 and 13.
The LED demand for tablet PCs will increase by 90% next year, mainly due to the purchase of Apple iPad, coupled with improved resolution and tablet PCs are still in the growth stage. UBS estimates that demand for LED chips will reach 24.

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